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Income inequality is likely to grow, possibly leading to political instability; and the individuals who need to retrain for new careers won’t be the young, but middle-aged professionals. Only 5 percent of current occupations stand to be completely automated if today’s cutting-edge technology is widely adopted, while in 60 percent of jobs, one-third of activities will be automated.
Quoting a US government commission from the 1960s on the same topic, Mc Kinsey’s researchers summarize: “technology destroys jobs, but not work.” As an example, it examines the effect of the personal computer in the US since 1980, finding that the invention led to the creation of 18.5 million new jobs, even when accounting for jobs lost.
The report uses America’s transition out of agriculture as a historical example, pointing out that the decrease in farming jobs in the US was accompanied by major spending on secondary education and new laws enforcing compulsory attendance.
Six nations are also analyzed in detail — the US, China, Germany, Japan, India, and Mexico — with these countries representing a range of economic situations and differently organized workforces.
The report stresses that the effects of automation on work will differ from country to country.
A similar push is needed today, says Mc Kinsey, yet over the last few decades, spending on labor force training and support has fallen.
The conclusion of the report seems to be: automation doesn’t have to be a disaster, but only if politics keeps pace.
A new report predicts that by 2030, as many as 800 million jobs could be lost worldwide to automation.